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January 10, 2012

Inverse volatility: XIV, not VIX


VelocityShares Inverse VIX ETN (XIV)

This ETN offers daily inverse exposure to an index comprised of investments in short-term VIX futures contracts-a strategy that has struggled mightily in 2011 thanks to heightened volatility and backwardated markets. Though XIV has lost more than 40% of its value in 2011, there is reason to be optimistic that at least the beginning of 2012 will be more favorable. The VIX, a measure of expected equity market volatility, has declined considerably in recent weeks as optimism over the global economy has returned. And more importantly for XIV, contango in VIX futures markets has also returned; the futures curve now has a steep upward slope, a condition that can give a nice boost to the strategy employed by XIV [see also Low Volatility ETFs Attracting Big Inflows].

Given that XIV utilizes a futures-based strategy to deliver inverse exposure, this ETN probably isn't appropriate for risk-averse investors who aren't willing or able to regularly monitor their positions. But for those who grasp the complexities associated with XIV, the current environment might just be perfect for this ETN. XIV might not be a good ETN to own throughout 2012, but it certainly seems to be positioned nicely for a strong start to the year.

April 11, 2011

Buy realized volatility, sell implied volatility ?


Unlike 2008 and 2010 implied volatility the market over estimated implied volatility going into and out of the Japan crisis -- why then should Vix be trading so low now?


Vix parity, volatility arbitrage and Japan

Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Mar 29

February 12, 2011

Options expiry 2011


Options expiry 2011 by month: Month: Expiry, Trading Stops and Settlement Occurs
January: 21, 22.
February: 18, 19.
March: 18, 19.
April: 15, 16.
May: 20, 21.
June: 17, 18.
July: 15, 16.
August: 19, 20.
September: 20, 21.
October: 21, 22.
November: 18, 19.
December: 16, 17.

Continue reading "Options expiry 2011" »

January 14, 2011

Implied volatility vs historical volatility


I mean if you knew in advance that historical volatility will sit at 5 for the next month, then yes, selling SPY options at 15 volatility sounds like a great idea. The point is though one looks backward (HV) and the other estimates forward (IV). An HV of 5 is unsustainably low, it suggest 2/3 of all days will see a .3% range or less in SPY. The HV numbers we see now look back at an incredibly non-volatile holiday stretch. Options rightly price in that we won't see that kind of non-action going forward.

For an extreme example of how HV and IV can diverge, consider a small binary-ish biotech ahead of news on some product. The stock itself may have tiny volatility, while options price in that the stock will double or halve once the news comes out. The attached graph shows DNDN over the past year, 20 day HV vs. 30 day IV. In late April ahead of news, IV sat at 140, HV at 30. After the news and the 30% gap, HV shot up to 110, and IV plunged to 60. The news was out. And no one would suggest options were a major buy at 60 volatility, other than a bot that would pick them up as cheap vs. historical volatility.

-- Adam / Daily

May 20, 2010

The options Insider


theoptionsinsider looks at options trading strategies.

August 15, 2009

Consolidated financial planning

mystockoptions includes stock options in financial planning.

December 16, 2008

Greeks of leveraged ETFs

Ultra ETFs deliver a 2 delta. There is a negligible amount of gamma, theta, and vega, a small amount of rho, and some exposure to dividend risk and borrowing costs.

-- ET comment on the option greeks of ETFs.

October 10, 2008

Think or swim: think different than other brokers ?

Think or Swim aims for high volume from quickly expiring options.

The average accounts remain above 40K. The Annual avg trades per remain
above 180 and the churn hovers around 7%. TOS is pillaging competitors at
a 14:1 ratio (nearly 12,000 accounts taken away from OXPS, Schwab, TD,
Etrade etc in 6 months).

Continue reading "Think or swim: think different than other brokers ?" »

September 8, 2008

Option Volatility & Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques, Sheldon Natenberg


Option Volatility & Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques
, second edition (1994, Hardcover) by Sheldon Natenberg.

Natenberg not only takes great pains to explain the concept of volatility, in addition to other inputs into an option pricing model, but clearly shows that option pricing isn't the exact science many seem to believe, for the simple reason that we never know if our volatility estimate is correct.

September 6, 2008

Options as a Strategic Investment, Lawrence G. McMillan

Options as a Strategic Investment, 4th Edition (2001), by Lawrence G. McMillan .

Comprehensive and informative. Covers pretty much every conceivable option strategy in the context of both equity and futures options and imparts realistic expectations.

August 16, 2008

Buy-Write covered calls: BEP and BWV

There are many funds today offering some version of covered call strategy (BuyWrite strategy). We have been asked "What do they do?" and "Are they a good addition to a diversified and allocated portfolio?"

In September 2004 the Ibbotson Associates consulting found higher returns and much lower volatility for a the BuyWrite index versus the S&P 500 alone.

1-hypotheticalreturndiag2.jpg

-- qvmgroup

Continue reading "Buy-Write covered calls: BEP and BWV" »

August 6, 2008

Etrade options

Etrade's option infographs and risk management strategies.

August 1, 2008

Optionetics

Optionetics pitches options trading to retail investors. Will training make informed investors ?