Averaged Poll predicts undecideds for Kerry
election.princeton by Sam Wang averages all polls, fits a trend, and
predicts Kerry will win.
Monday, 2004 November 01, 12:00PM noon Eastern time
Median outcome, decided voters:
Kerry 252 EV, Bush 286 EV (±40 EV MoE)
Popular Meta-Margin among decided voters:
Bush leads Kerry by 0.9%
Predicted median with undecideds:
Kerry 280 EV, Bush 258 EV
Electoral prediction with undecideds and turnout:
Kerry 323 EV, Bush 215 EV
Popular vote prediction with undecideds and turnout:
Kerry 50%, Bush 48%, Nader/other 2%