Big data to win elections
"The trickiest problem, the one that will take the longest time to solve, is the creation of a culture of data and analytics, including training operatives to understand what data is," Lundry said. And the collaborative nature of "data ecosystems," he suggested, do not play to Republican strengths.
The Priebus report surveyed 227 Republican campaign managers, field staff, consultants, vendors and other political professionals, asking them to rank the Democrat and Republican advantages on 24 different measures using a scale ranging from plus 5 (decisive Republican edge) to minus 5 (solid Democratic advantage). "Democrats," the report noted, "were seen as having the advantage on all but one." As the graph on Page 28 of the report illustrates, most of the largest Democratic advantages relate directly to the integration of technology with "ground war" campaign activities like person-to-person voter contact, election-day turnout and demographic analysis:
The premier pro-Democratic quantitatively oriented organizations -- both for-profit and nonprofit -- have become crucial sources of data, voter contact and nanotargeting innovation for Democrats and liberal organizations. These include:
• Catalist, which maintains a "comprehensive database of voting-age Americans" for progressive organizations;
• The Analyst Institute, "a clearinghouse for evidence-based best practices in progressive voter contact," which conducts experimental, randomized testing of voter persuasion and voter mobilization programs;
• TargetSmart Communications, which develops political and technology strategies;
• American Bridge 21st Century, which conducts year-round opposition research on Republicans and conservative groups;
• The Atlas Project, which provides clients with online access to detailed political history from national to local races, including media buys and campaign finance data and a host of other politically relevant data;
• Blue State Digital, a commercial firm founded by operatives in Howard Dean's 2004 campaign that now provides digital services to clients ranging from the Obama campaign to Ford Motor Company to Google.
this Democratic advantage. Sasha Issenberg, who wrote "The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns," has described what liberals and Democrats have done to "mathematicize" voter turnout. Right after the 2012 election, Issenberg explained how things have changed:
Within the practice of politics, no shift seems more dramatic than the role reversal between the two parties on campaigning competence. Today, there is only one direction in which envy can and should be directed: Democrats have proved themselves better -- more disciplined, rigorous, serious, and forward-looking -- at nearly every aspect of the project of winning elections.
-- Alex Lundry, vice president and research director of TargetPoint, a company at the forefront of microtargeting for the Republicans in 2002 and 2004
-- Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee