Coruscation

Junior Minister for 4Chan ?

Sunstein had, during his academic career, a penchant for publishing trial balloons -- they were a necessary part of his inquiry, a perpetual what if? Now, with their author a government official, some of these conjectures seem more worrisome. Sunstein has, for example, written often about the corrosive effects of rumors and falsehoods on democratic discourse (it is the subject of one of the two books that were published while he was waiting to be confirmed last year), and in a 2008 paper, he proposed that government agents "cognitively infiltrate" chat rooms and message boards to try to debunk conspiracy theories before they spread. The paper was narrowly concerned with terrorism, but to some, these were dark musings. The liberal essayist Glenn Greenwald, writing in Salon, called the proposal "spine-chilling."

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Negative equity is the best predictor for loan defaults, said Sam Khater, a senior economist for First American. Still, "a majority of people who are underwater probably will not default," he said, "because if you have your job and don't encounter economic shock, you'll most likely keep paying your mortgage on your home."

Real estate values in the greater New York area may suffer less from underwater mortgages than in other parts of the nation, said Mr. Khater, of First American, because homeowners are less likely to fall into foreclosure.

That is because this area was less popular among people who bought homes as investments rather than for their own use. In Arizona, Nevada, California and Florida, where speculative buying was much more common, homeowners who owe much more than their homes are worth generally have less incentive to keep paying the mortgage.

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The Party Starter, Blythe Masters:

"Just as the rapidly growing asset backed securitisation market is bringing investors new sources of credit assets, the credit derivatives market will strip out and repackage credit exposures from the vastly greater pool of risks which do not naturally lend themselves to securitisation, either because the risks are unfunded (off-balance-sheet), because they are not intrinsically transferable, or because their sale would be complicated by relationship concerns."

The best line of course is "By enhancing liquidity, credit derivatives achieve the financial equivalent of a "free lunch" whereby both buyers and sellers of risk benefit from the associated efficiency gains."

from concluding paragraph from her magnum opus - all in the Queen's English of course.

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Goldman Sachs name new MD (Managing Director Partners) for 2009.

Included was Jan Hatzius, economist known for real estate commentary.

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felixsalmon, Portfolio writer ( since moved to Reuters).

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Tanta of Calculated Risk, dead at 47.
A scathing yet joyous nerd.

Best of: On automated underwriting systems (AUS), underwriting cheat sheets, dogs.

First, there's the old "let's retrain a bunch of subprime loan officers to be prime GSE loan officers." You civilians might think this should be fairly easy, but the fact is that training a lot of these people to be prime loan officers basically means training them to be loan officers. If they had any basic depth of understanding of the business they're in, they could move to prime origination by just reading that other rate sheet. The reality is that they've been doing no-doc no-down no-sweat stuff for so long--some of them have never done anything but--that they're sitting around with the PlayStation waiting for someone to tell them how a 30-year fixed rate loan with a down payment and verified income actually works. Which is to say, their bosses are sitting around in the busier conference rooms trying to figure out if it's possibly worth the time and money to turn these people into mortgage experts instead of corner-cutting order-takers.

Continue reading "Tanta (Doris Dungey), RIP" »

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Chris Whalen @ PRMIA, (archives).

Example:
There is nothing you can do to "fix" a CDO, to make it liquid,
other than to standardize the terms and trade it on an exchange.
The liquidity gridlock prevailing in the secondary market for CDOs
is the normal situation for such unique and entirely opaque
instruments, whereas the past illusion of liquidity was abnormal,
a byproduct of the "irrational exuberance" described by Greenspan
himself. Buy Side investors accepted the fallacy of liquidity -- until
they asked the Sell Side dealers to bid on the paper. That's when
the current trouble really began.

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